How Target Lock Works
L1 — Target-LockIs this a real metastasis driver?
L2 — Mechanism FitAre the right patients being enrolled?
Key InsightBoth layers required. Target is almost never the failure mode.
The $300M MistakeRIGHT target, WRONG enrollment.
Two-Layer Prediction FrameworkL1 × L2 → Outcome
HIGHHIGH✅ Enroll — real target, right patients
HIGHLOW❌ Trial fails — target is real, enrollment is wrong$300M
LOWHIGH❌ Trial fails — wrong target
LOWLOW❌ Full failure
CEACAM5 is the second LATIFY. Both have HIGH Target-Lock (real targets) and both failed from unselected/insufficiently gated enrollment.
Target Expression GateEnrolled ThresholdIHC 2+ ≥50%
Required ThresholdIHC 3+ ≥80%
Target-Lock ScoreHIGH
Enrollment GateUNSELECTED
Phase III Loss$300M+
Target: MMP9
Vulnerability: 0.942