How Target Lock Works
L1 โ Target-LockIs this a real metastasis driver?
L2 โ Mechanism FitAre the right patients being enrolled?
Key InsightBoth layers required. Target is almost never the failure mode.
The $300M MistakeRIGHT target, WRONG enrollment.
Two-Layer Prediction FrameworkL1 ร L2 โ Outcome
HIGHHIGHโ
Enroll โ real target, right patients
HIGHLOWโ Trial fails โ target is real, enrollment is wrong$300M
LOWHIGHโ Trial fails โ wrong target
LOWLOWโ Full failure
The $300M RowCEACAM5 is the second LATIFY. Both have HIGH Target-Lock (real targets) and both failed from unselected/insufficiently gated enrollment.
CEACAM5 Franchise Deterministic RescuePhasePhase III (Terminated)
DrugTusamitamab Ravtansine (SAR408701)
EndpointFAILED โ PFS HR=1.14 (95% CI 0.86โ1.51; p=0.8204); discontinued Dec 21, 2023
1/3 โ ITT failed; โฅ80% OS signal post-hoc only+0.3961
Target: CEACAM5
ฮ: +0.3961